“When will peace come?” This is a question the people of Nepal have been asking for a long time. Many thought it was close back in 2005, during Nepal’s civil war, when political parties formed a seven party alliance, aimed at ending the autocratic rule of the King and reintroducing democracy. Peace was in sight when the King ended emergency rule and reinstated parliament after the people spent 19 days protesting in the streets in April of 2006. When the government started talking to the Maoists and finally signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) seven months later, many thought peace was just around the corner. The CPA officially ended a brutal ten year civil war, brought the rebel Maoists into mainstream politics and paved the way for Constituent Assembly (CA) elections. The mandate of the CA would be to write new Nepal’s new constitution. After several delays, hopes for peace were again raised when the elections took place without any major incidences of violence in April of 2008. Surprising almost everyone, the Maoists won the highest number of seats, but failed to reach a majority, making political cooperation necessary for the writing of the new constitution. During the first meeting of the CA in May of 2008, Nepal was declared a secular, democratic republic, and the King left the palace, ending the 250 year old monarchy. Surely, now peace had come. Yet, obstacles remained. Holding together a fragile coalition government and running the country proved difficult for the Maoists, who had spent the previous 10 years waging a war in the jungle. The coalition government ended in May of 2009 when the Maoist Prime Minister resigned over a row with the Army Chief. Peace remained elusive. Several weeks later, a new coalition government was formed, headed by the United Marxist Leninist (UML) party, with the Maoists in opposition. This government has spent almost every ounce of energy since that time trying to stay in power, leaving little space for anything else- such as writing the new constitution.
“When will peace come?” With less than two months remaining before the May 28 deadline for the promulgation of the new constitution, this question hangs in the air. To be fair, the CA has made some progress, and pieces of the constitution are in place. But significant issues remain. How many former rebel combatants will be integrated into the Nepal Army? The government has proposed around 3,000 while the Maoists are demanding 15,000. How will Nepal be restructured as a federal country? Some say geographically, others say according to nationality (or ethnicity, depending on who you’re talking to). Will there be one state or two states in the Terai? What is the role of the President? Will the structure of the Army be changed? These are the difficult questions which remain unanswered and keep peace at bay.
Last week, senior politician GP Koriala, the one man who commanded respect from all the political parties, passed away, leaving a gaping hole in Nepal’s peace process. Hopes for a new constitution by May 28 are dwindling. There is a provision for the deadline to be extended, but to do that; a state of emergency would need to be declared. The Maoists, for one, are suspicious of what the other parties may try to do during a state of emergency, and it’s not certain that they will allow it to happen. The mandate of the CA is tied to the writing of the new constitution and will be dissolved as of May 28 (if an extension is not passed). Numerous scenarios are being imagined if the deadline is missed. Strangely enough, some insist that only the President, who has very limited authority in the current arrangement, will remain. Others talk of a military coup, which happens somewhat regularly in many South Asian countries but has never happened in Nepal. The Maoists may launch a third “People’s Movement”, which would most likely at least begin peacefully. In recent days, the former King has re-emerged on the political scene, stating in a television interview that the monarchy could be revived. Some fear that monarchy supporters and Hindu fundamentalists could use the current vacuum left by Koriala’s death as an opportunity to attempt to restore a Hindu Kingdom. Other scenarios include a combination of these possibilities.
It’s difficult to know what will happen. For now, at least some Nepalese remain hopeful that the constitution will be written on time, and that peace will finally come. If that doesn’t happen, there are many people in Nepal and supporters from around the world who will continue to hope, knowing that peace, although elusive, is coming. Shanti aaundaichha. Peace is coming.
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